Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.117401e-05 0.000097 0.000113 0.000132 0.000153 0.000176 0.000201
2025-02-09 5.967735e-05 0.000080 0.000102 0.000130 0.000163 0.000200 0.000244
2025-02-16 5.152978e-05 0.000074 0.000101 0.000135 0.000177 0.000224 0.000283
2025-02-23 4.280829e-05 0.000067 0.000097 0.000136 0.000185 0.000244 0.000317
2025-03-02 3.410316e-05 0.000058 0.000089 0.000131 0.000185 0.000251 0.000335
2025-03-09 2.710526e-05 0.000050 0.000081 0.000126 0.000185 0.000258 0.000354
2025-03-16 2.275860e-05 0.000045 0.000078 0.000125 0.000189 0.000270 0.000377
2025-03-23 1.942813e-05 0.000042 0.000075 0.000126 0.000195 0.000284 0.000404
2025-03-30 1.626448e-05 0.000038 0.000072 0.000124 0.000198 0.000295 0.000425
2025-04-06 1.308456e-05 0.000033 0.000067 0.000121 0.000198 0.000301 0.000441
2025-04-13 1.094413e-05 0.000031 0.000064 0.000120 0.000201 0.000311 0.000462
2025-04-20 8.321000e-06 0.000026 0.000059 0.000114 0.000197 0.000311 0.000470
2025-04-27 6.919566e-06 0.000024 0.000058 0.000116 0.000206 0.000329 0.000505
2025-05-04 5.382360e-06 0.000022 0.000055 0.000115 0.000210 0.000343 0.000534
2025-05-11 4.643657e-06 0.000021 0.000055 0.000119 0.000221 0.000365 0.000574
2025-05-18 3.758792e-06 0.000019 0.000054 0.000120 0.000228 0.000383 0.000608
2025-05-25 2.542994e-06 0.000016 0.000049 0.000115 0.000225 0.000385 0.000621
2025-06-01 1.693588e-06 0.000014 0.000045 0.000111 0.000223 0.000389 0.000637
2025-06-08 1.211149e-06 0.000012 0.000043 0.000110 0.000226 0.000401 0.000663
2025-06-15 8.899349e-07 0.000011 0.000042 0.000111 0.000232 0.000415 0.000693
2025-06-22 5.937362e-07 0.000010 0.000040 0.000109 0.000234 0.000425 0.000717
2025-06-29 3.379882e-07 0.000008 0.000037 0.000106 0.000233 0.000430 0.000733
2025-07-06 2.020958e-07 0.000007 0.000036 0.000105 0.000236 0.000440 0.000758